We are facing something which we saw—a crisis due to which 90% of the people on earth are sitting at home. The transaction is the basis of any economic growth. However, there are many ways to do the marketing online, internet banking, mobile banking, Paypal NEFT even our Indian way UPI. The discretionary expenditure generates demand and pushes growth, But as it is impossible to go outside even for small things, we can’t say anything about development. I can see many NEWS anchors working from their homes. I can see that the world-famous New York Stock Exchange shut down. As I write this US FED, I now declare what we can say UNLIMITED Quantitative Easing. US government also announced $2.2 trillion packages, making me think, “Why did Donald Trump do Helicopter drop.” I was fighting with an impulse to write on helicopter drop, but then I realized that this was not worth it. But then the RBI governor reduced CRR to 3% and permitted the limit for Keep it from 90% to 80%. Repo and reverse repo rates also came down. This is also one type of stimulus package.
Something happened today morning. I was going through my recommendation and found many articles talking about recession there. So I went to google trends and what I found is this.
As a finance blogger, the First thing that came to my mind was what about growth. As the discretionary expenditure is not there, companies like Airline Companies, Hotels, travel, and tourism are affected badly. Safe Heavens like dollar-denominated bonds and treasury yields are coming down. Recently, I am listening that petrol demand decreased by 80% in many areas of India. So the question is, what are the effects of corona on the economy as large. I will write it sector-wise by using the classification of the sector as a GLOBAL INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION STANDARD.
- Banking and NBFC ( Financial Services): For India, banking was going through a big NPA crisis, New bankruptcy law helped up to a specific limit, but this time, the risk increased as EMIs were also not paid. Corporate loans given may turn sour. Credit card companies may be the worst hit as with revolving credit, the money needed to come back. If money is not coming back, how will it revolve around it? Stock exchanges will be on as it is part of the payment system. But the brokerages will be halted. The online system may receive a heavy load. New loan demand may not come for a long time.
- BASIC MATERIAL & PROCESSING: A complete question mark. Some of them are capital-intensive—needed money, But who will invest when the savings are to be liquidated. The government may cover their current loans, but what about the future. How many peoples will think about buying a new home, and when will the latest real estate construction start? Infrastructure development may also be affected. Chemical manufacturers maybe boost their business as their products are needed in large amounts. Paper companies may be in great demand if some government decides to destroy the currency and print a new one. If the world decides to go for online payment, that will be the new paradigm. Metals and mining minerals will be the hardest hit as they are all dependent on industrial demand.
- Consumer Discretionary: Goods and services are considered non-essential by consumers but desirable if their available income is sufficient to purchase them. Consumer discretionary goods include durable goods, apparel, entertainment and leisure, and automobiles. As the question to yourself, How many times for the last few days have you thought About buying a new car, going to some movie, Buying some fashionable clothes, buying mobiles? Amazon itself declared that they stopped delivering new things for some time and kept the necessary items on the list.
- Global Trade: Coronavirus is changing completely the way world trade takes place. Free trade generates wealth through production specialization and expanded consumption opportunities at lower prices. But, no, none of that conventional economic wisdom matters if producers and consumers are sick, moribund, or dead. In the ‘Healthy Trade’ paradigm, international trade is public health policy with national security implications.
- Consumer Staples: Any team which we need in day-to-day life. They all may be came to normal fast. They will never go out. We all need toothpaste, a brush, shampoo, soap, and all teams. Companies like ITC HUL, Unilever, Nestle, P&G, and all the manufacturers of foods like Kelloggs, Cocacola, and Tobacco. We need all these products every day. We can’t live without them.
- Energy: All big oil companies are already down when oil prices are already around $25 per barrel. Other companies are energy manufacturers in the form of crude oil, exploration, refining, or the companies providing anything to them like capital goods. So without industrial activity, no demand for fuel and Electricity. So the distribution companies may also receive less income as some of them receive payment as part of the income of energy producers. So fixed rent may be there, but part income is gone.
- Private equity, Insurance, and Mutual funds may be partially hit as banking also hit significant roadblocks. But as they are an investor for the long term, their return may not be affected that much.
- Healthcare: This industry may receive significant investment. Many big trades and large deals will be seen. Many new names will be there. New technology, many new hospitals in countries like India. New facilities. I believe that this will be a big hot spot for a long time. For example, a new coronavirus remedy may receive a significant appreciation. API companies maybe receive big contracts for this. Medical device manufacturers may see many new orders for a ventilator. In my word, this will be new e-Commerce. A new hospital chain may open.
- Industrial Durables. The big question mark at least for one year. No new demand is visible. And whatever is visible shows no further business for Capital Good companies like heavy machinery and equipment manufacturers. The aerospace and defense budget may include healthcare as I am listening that people think this is some war started by China. Transportation and logistics companies may come on track with FMCG companies or little letters. Companies providing Commercial Printing, Environmental and Facilities Services, Office Services and Supplies, Diversified Support Services, and Security and Alarm Services. Their fate will be decided when will be the activity at large starts.
- Telecom: We need them. In India, we may see the new breath for Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel. Indus tower Bharti infra merger may see the new light of day. We realized what the importance of the internet is. So I am sure that this is another sector where something new will come. I am not tracking this sector globally, but I am sure that 5G technology will be a game-changer for them. Recently listening to the report that around 2 million sim cards stopped working in china. This coronavirus is changing many things. This one sector may be the field to see it.
- Technology companies. They are now a new start and a front runner for many things. Companies like Google, Amazon, Apple and other device manufacturers may see a new world as china is looking like a villain now. US government may try to gain their lost companies to china. China may receive new restrictions. One more sector to watch keenly.
- Utilities like gas, water, and Electricity will keep doing their business as always. There is some change expected in this but not oversized.