While reading about the weather forecast I started listening to the word, el nino. after some time even some financial analysts highlight it. Then even the RBI governor mentioned it. There I realize that I need to study about it. It’s not enough that I listen to the word. This blog post is all about what I learned about El Nino.
The historical impact of El Niño on India has been significant. In the 16th century, for example, an El Niño event is believed to have caused the Great Famine of 1595-1603, which killed millions of people. In the 20th century, El Niño events have been linked to droughts in the 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s. The impact of El Niño on India can vary from year to year, depending on the strength of the El Niño event. However, El Niño is a major risk factor for drought, floods, heat waves, and wildfires in India.
The correlation between El Nino and Indian monsoon rainfall is significant, despite occasional instances when India gets normal or above-normal rain during El Nino years. Over the past seven decades, the El Nino weather pattern occurred 15 times, with India experiencing normal or above-normal rainfall in six instances.
El Nino events are categorized according to the magnitude of temperature rise. In 2009, a weak El Nino led to a significant reduction in India’s rainfall. It was Below 78.2% of normal, the lowest recorded in 37 years.
The first thing I realized is that this El Nino is a serious thing and not a joke. El Nino is a reason for the end of some cultures. So there is a reason why countries from Peru to Australia are tracking it. I was aware that some invisible ocean currents are caused by temperature differences. from school, I learn that the Temperature of oceans globally made a big difference in human life in many ways. Due to my curiosity, I am aware of The Roaring 40s, Furious 50s, and Screaming 60s. But El Nino is something bigger than that. Here Google helps me.
What is El Nino
El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths — a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that break these normal conditions. Scientists call these phenomena the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle
El Niño means Little Boy in Spanish. During El Niño, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back toward the west coast of the Americas. El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding. Warming of the Pacific Ocean disrupts normal weather patterns around the world, leading to changes in temperature, precipitation, and storm activity.
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
Effect of El Nino and La Nina
Google also told me that, El Niño and La Niña can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies. Episodes of El Niño and La Niña typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years. El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don’t occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
As El Nino and La Nina are events related to Ocean, the fisheries industry can be affected, and I can understand that. But what about agriculture? what effect did El Nino have on India? In simple words, In El Nino, the water becomes warmer, the Pacific jet stream makes the wind go south, and Monson also goes to the south. The large north part of the Indian subcontinent didn’t receive it. this includes Punjab, the Banks of the river Ganges, and the Himalayas. This is a part where little more than 50% of the Indian population lives.
How Can El Nino affect the Indian Finacial Environment?
El Niño can lead to droughts in India, which can reduce agricultural output and lead to higher food prices. This can hurt farmers and consumers, and can also lead to inflation. Food is a big part of the Household budget. As Food inflation start forcing households to spend more, other expenditure will start coming down.
El Nino affects monsoon. So this can easily affect hydroelectric generation. This can easily affect many of the industries which use water.
RBI governor Shaktikant das Mentioned that the fight against inflation is not over. What it means is that He is aware of El Nino and its effects on Agriculture. Kharif’s crop in 2023 will be watched closely. Because Kharif time will be the time when El Nino will be active in South Asia. This will be happening when the Government procurement of wheat didn’t achieve its targets and now the Food Corporation of India didn’t have the expected stock which can stabilize. The reason why I am highlighting it is The area that will be highest affected by El Nino is the area that contributes the highest towards the Government food scheme.
